Moody’s upgrades #Pakistan’s bond ratings to B3 with a stable outlook


Moody’s upgrades Pakistan’s bond ratings to B3 with a stable outlook

Singapore, June 11, 2015 — Moody’s Investors Service has today upgraded Pakistan’s foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings to B3 from Caa1, and assigned a stable outlook.

Key drivers for the rating action are expectations of:

1. Continued strengthening of the external payments position; and

2. Sustained progress in structural reforms under the government’s program with the IMF.

As progress on these fronts becomes firmly entrenched, risks of default are receding relative to other sovereigns in the Caa1-rated category that are facing heightened external vulnerabilities.

Concurrently, Moody’s has upgraded the rating assigned to the US dollar Trust Certificates issued by The Second Pakistan International Sukuk Company Limited to B3.

In today’s rating action, Moody’s has also changed Pakistan’s foreign-currency bond ceiling to B2 from B3, the foreign-currency deposit ceiling to Caa1 from Caa2, and the local-currency country risk ceiling to Ba3 from B1. The short-term country ceilings for foreign-currency bonds and deposits remain unchanged at Not-Prime (NP).

RATINGS RATIONALE

RATING UPGRADE TO B3 FROM Caa1

First Driver — A strengthening external liquidity position

Pakistan’s external liquidity position continues to strengthen. Net foreign reserves have climbed steadily, to $11.9 billion as of end-May 2015 from a low of $3.2 billion in January 2014.

Improvement in external liquidity has recently been bolstered by successful recent privatization offerings that have been met with strong investor appetite, in turn reinforced by Pakistan’s underlying growth potential and progress on structural reforms. Moody’s expects real GDP growth to rise to 4.7% year-on-year in the fiscal year ending June 2016, and further to a range of 5-6% in the following four years.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with pledges worth $46 billion from Beijing, will also serve over time to accelerate growth by boosting investment in transportation links with China and addressing shortages in electrical power generation once implementation is underway.

Lower oil prices additionally relieve pressure on the current account of the balance of payments. However, a durable improvement in the external payments position will likely depend on sustained political stability and continuity in policy.

Second Driver – Implementation of reforms under the IMF program

Pakistan continues to make steady progress on structural reforms. In mid-May, the IMF issued a statement upon the conclusion of its staff mission, indicating that the seventh review under the Extended Fund Facility that it signed in March 2013 had been conducted successfully and would be reviewed by the IMF’s management board.

Cumulative financial assistance under the IMF’s 4.4 billion ($6.2 billion at current rates) special drawing rights program currently amount to $3.5 billion.

With the program now at its mid-point, we consider that the government has achieved significant traction in reforms . Continued commitment to the program would entail, amongst other goals, the government meeting deficit-reduction targets. Coupled with ongoing efforts to lengthen the maturity structure of Pakistan’s debt, this would contribute to a decline in large gross financing needs.

RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK

The stable outlook represents our expectation of balanced upside and downside risks.

Upward pressures stem from support from multilateral and bilateral lenders, which bolster an improving foreign reserve position and ongoing reform progress.

Despite positive ongoing developments, rating constraints which would put downward pressures stem from Pakistan’s very low fiscal strength, due to its high debt levels and weak debt affordability in light of a narrow revenue base. Deeply entrenched weaknesses in the power sector also act as a bottleneck to growth. While Pakistan’s government financing is mainly from domestic sources and system-wide external debt is declining as a percent to GDP, the level of external public debt poses a moderate degree of credit risk. In addition, political event risks remain relatively high in Pakistan despite recent stability.

RATIONALE FOR THE B3 RATING

Weak government finances, marked by elevated debt levels which will continue to exceed the median for B3-rated peers, are the primary constraint on Pakistan’s B3 government bond rating.

Economic growth, while in line with other B-rated sovereigns, is below potential, largely due to supply constraints that stem from a lack of structural reforms in the energy sector.

The passage of ongoing reforms indicates that government effectiveness is improving. Nonetheless, a fractious political environment presents risks to smooth policy making. Moody’s also sees an elevated vulnerability to geopolitical risks

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN

Upward triggers to the rating would stem from sustained progress in structural reforms that would remove infrastructure impediments and supply-side bottlenecks. This would improve Pakistan’s investment environment and eventually aid a shift to a higher growth trajectory. A fundamental strengthening in the external liquidity position and meaningful reduction in the deficit and debt burden would also be credit positive.

Conversely, we would view a stalling of the ongoing IMF program or the withdrawal of other multilateral and bilateral support, a deterioration in the external payments position or a more unstable political environment to be credit negative.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 4,736 (2014 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): 4.03% (2014 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Jun/Jun): 8.2% (2014 Actual)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -5.5% (2014 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance, excluding grants)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -1.3% (2014 Actual) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 26.1% (2014 Actual, overall, including publicly guaranteed debt and )

Level of economic development: Very Low level of economic resilience

On 09 June 2015, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Pakistan, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer’s economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have materially increased. The issuer’s governance and/or management, have materially increased. The issuer has become less susceptible to event risks.

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12 June, 2015 14:46


Nadeem Malik Live - 11th June 2015http://www.awaztoday.tv/News-Talk-Shows/88389/Nadeem-Malik-Live-11th-June-2015.aspx
http://www.zemtv.com/2015/06/11/nadeem-malik-live-forum-15-gaib-zimmedari-kis-ki-11th-june-2014/
http://www.pakistanherald.com/program/30059/11-june-2015/nadeem-malik-live-form-15-missing(com)-who-is-responsible
http://siasatkorner.com/threads/nadeem-malik-live-forum-15-gaib%E2%80%A6zimmedari-kis-ki-%E2%80%93-11th-june-2015.336287/

NADEEM MALIK LIVE

samaa.tv/nadeemmaliklive/

11-JUNE-2015

TOPIC- JUDICIAL COMMISSION

GUESTS- QAMAR ZAMAN KAIRA, ABID SHER ALI, ASAD UMER

QAMAR ZAMAN KAIRA OF PPPP said that the election result is compiled on the basis of forms 15 and 14 they should tally with each other. He said that it have been two years since elections 2013 why election commission is not asking to RO’s about forms 15 and 14. He said that there was Dharna in the country and rallies after the elections but election commission has not given any details of forms 15 and 14. He said that the picture of the voter was also provided besides thumb impression why they were not verified. He said that besides the picture and thumb impression ID card number could have been verified but was not. He said that poling agents were put in the doors and ID card identification was done inside the room in the elections of 2013. He said that Salman Akram raja said that forms 14 are almost present what he means by it? all the forms 14 should be there. He said that if election commission has forms 14 why they are not put on their web site as yet. He said that if more constituencies are investigated it will reveal more surprises. He said that free election commission and judiciary are essential for transparent elections in the country.

He said that when Shahbaz Sharif was leaving his office on last day he told his staff that he is going on leave.

ABID SHER ALI OF PML-N said that the responsibility of forms 14 and 15 was on election commission and not him. He said that he was elected with the votes of the people and he is not guilty of anything. He said that PTI was accusing Najam Sethi for thirty five punctures but in judicial commission they did not even mention it.

ASAD UMER OF PTI said that form 15 tells that how many votes were cast and how many were fake. He said that 11.8 million extra votes were printed and majority of them was used in Punjab and Balochistan. He said that Najam Sethi himself has stated infront of judicial commission that authority was taken away from him two weeks prior to the elections and was transferred to Model Town and Raiwind. He said that Najam Sethi statement was so damaging that they did not feel necessary to mention the issue of 35 punctures.

He said that his poling agent was kicked out of poling station and he was not allowed to enter in the poling station. He said that election commission has been exposed and now next step should be investigations. He said that investigations will reveal that what was done during the elections.